Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 12.874596 14.711748 16.701951 19.016081 21.630835 24.491634 27.856802
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 10.053812 12.490498 15.340054 18.910447 23.256105 28.365097 34.818342
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.433793 11.056598 14.277738 18.510094 23.909013 30.548774 39.315845
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.375480 10.139217 13.682891 18.536853 24.987127 33.235688 44.551759
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.671289 9.554665 13.391388 18.837510 26.331523 36.237802 50.275090
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 6.041114 8.983310 13.033320 18.972020 27.406565 38.895242 55.656435
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.425255 8.355270 12.517819 18.808262 28.007495 40.888254 60.190185
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.998731 7.951754 12.270808 18.981011 29.060430 43.533510 65.756415
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.745109 7.777366 12.332752 19.592443 30.767944 47.188045 72.966147
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.324667 7.301142 11.892666 19.395605 31.227090 49.006837 77.531136
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.771855 6.560501 10.978253 18.380824 30.338380 48.715281 78.839896
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.587954 6.406637 10.977623 18.807494 31.724241 51.967487 85.779741
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.403139 6.241060 10.953797 19.208513 33.118640 55.352717 93.197199
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.123317 5.886181 10.586609 19.008523 33.509512 57.154740 98.174411
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.844939 5.506659 10.143386 18.636879 33.570881 58.397840 102.268717
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.656805 5.273788 9.935298 18.653493 34.286815 60.750914 108.326322
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.529341 5.141985 9.894755 18.959453 35.517293 64.026355 116.110675
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.387837 4.970305 9.766904 19.093596 36.442543 66.815752 123.189034
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.218648 4.729123 9.490385 18.929243 36.808805 68.635725 128.643436
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.106670 4.591981 9.398933 19.102907 37.799979 71.603008 136.278120
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.055171 4.573700 9.534324 19.718091 39.650156 76.205377 147.096436
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.914814 4.357657 9.264204 19.520045 39.933497 77.948505 152.739665
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.699328 3.962212 8.604598 18.499111 38.553798 76.520675 152.382157